Será que os eleitores gostam de políticas econômicas ruins?

Os três candidatos que lideram a corrida presidencial- Bolsonaro*, Ciro e Haddad- são populistas. Todos vendem fantasias de crescimento econômico sem ajuste.
Nessas horas, eu penso neste diálogo que a McCloskey narra na Chicado dos anos 1960.  Stigler argumentava que se as pessoas quisessem livre-comércio, elas o teriam. Já Friedman acha que é necessário educar as pessoas sobre o dano que as tarifas causam:




No Brasil, a tragédia do populismo é tão recente que não dá para dizer que as pessoas esqueceram os fatos. Por que as pessoas querem a repetição daquilo que deu tão errado?
Nos meus melhores dias, eu compartilho com o Friedman a fé na educação econômica. Já nos piores, eu fecho com o Stigler e penso que as pessoas gostam de populismo (assim como gostam de tarifas). A lógica é a seguinte: nós gastamos com cinema, música e literatura. Tudo para esquecer a chatice do mundo real. Da mesma forma, pode ser que o eleitor "pague" com maior instabilidade ou renda mais baixa o prazer da ilusão temporária do populismo. Ele se alimenta das fantasias megalomaníacas nacionalistas. Já uma boa política econômica é tão enfadonha quanto a realidade. 
(Claro que eu não tenho ideia do porquê do populismo ter suas idas e vindas, nem a razão de se dar tão bem na América Latina. Essa pergunta vai para os departamentos de Ciência Política ou Antropologia)

* Sim, Guedes é populista quando diz que vai arrecadar um quaquilhão com a venda do patrimônio da união.

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