Tudo que você queria saber sobre "Doença Holandesa" na América Latina

O Albert melhor-aluno-do-Gerschenkron Fishlow e o Edmar Bacha produziram
Recent Commodity Price Boom and Latin American Growth: More than New Bottles for an Old Wine?. O artigo sintetiza o debate, as evidências empíricas, a história recente de países selecionados e toma posição. Fortemente recomendado!

Alguns trechos sobre o Brasil:

... the academic studies that have looked into this question failed to find evidence either for the Dutch Disease of the deindustrialization thesis (See Puga, 2007; Barros and Pereira, 2008; Jank et al., 2008; Nassif, 2008; Souza, 2009; Bonelli and Pessoa, 2010). Non-commodity-related-industries are finding harder than before to maintain their exports growing, but they have plenty of room for expansion in a rapidly growing and still well-protected domestic market.
Academics point to the obvious, beyond the immediate policy-mix issue—Brazil’s low savings rates and persistent government budget deficits. Were savings higher and deficits lower, interest rates could be reduced without risking higher inflation and providing room for a more competitive exchange rate. Without such austerity, however, the country seems condemned to a less-than-par potential GDP growth rate that may lead to increasing discomfort with current macroeconomic policies, and stronger appeal of long-abandoned populist policies.

A conclusão:

For Latin America’s economies the question is if the wine has now finally arrived to maturity-–and can be fully appreciated in the new bottles without provoking inebriation.

(Obrigado ao José Roberto Afonso).