A Riqueza das Nações no Longo Prazo

Até 1500...
Was the Wealth of Nations Determined in 1000 B.C.?
Diego Comin, William Easterly, Erick Gong

We assemble a dataset on technology adoption in 1000 B.C., 0 A.D., and 1500 A.D. for the predecessors to today’s nation states. We find that this very old history of technology adoption is surprisingly significant for today’s national development outcomes. Our strong and robust results are for 1500 A.D.determining per capita income today. We find technological persistence across long epochs: from 1000 BC to 0 AD, from 0 AD to 1500 AD, and from 1500 AD to the present. Although the data allow only some suggestive tests of rival hypotheses to explain long‐run technological persistence, we find the evidence to be most consistent with a model of endogenous technology adoption where the cost of adopting new technologies declines sufficiently with the current level of adoption. The evidence is less consistent with a dominant role for
population as predicted by the semi‐endogenous growth models or for countrylevel
factors like culture, genes or institutions.
(dica do Shikida).

Depois de 1500...
Post-1500 Population Flows and the Long Run Determinants of Economic Growth and Inequality
Louis Putterman, David N. Weil
We construct a matrix showing the share of the year 2000 population in every country that is descended from people in different source countries in the year 1500. Using this matrix, we analyze how post-1500 migration has influenced the level of GDP per capita and within-country income inequality in the world today. Indicators of early development such as early state history and the timing of transition to agriculture have much better predictive power for current GDP when one looks at the ancestors of the people who currently live in a country than when one considers the history on that country's territory, without adjusting for migration. Measures of the ethnic or linguistic heterogeneity of a country's current population do not predict income inequality as well as measures of the ethnic or linguistic heterogeneity of the current population's ancestors. An even better predictor of current inequality in a country is the variance of early development history of the country's inhabitants, with ethnic groups originating in regions having longer histories of agriculture and organized states tending to be at the upper end of a country's income distribution. However, high within-country variance of early development also predicts higher income per capita, holding constant the average level of early development.

Eu só não digo que são papers sobre o longuíssimo prazo, porque o genial Michael Kremer impôs um novo padrão.

2 comentários:

Hermenauta disse...

A Slate cunhou um nome bacana para isso: "Flintstone Effect".

Interessante, mas deixemos o verdadeiro crédito pela intuição geral da coisa com quem merece: Jared Diamond, aliás amplamente citado no texto. É a vindicação da "macrohistória".

No entanto é engraçado ver o que as pessoas fazem com as idéias depois que elas saem voando por aí. O texto da Slate, por exemplo, assume que o artigo demonstra um certo grau de inutilidade de políticas públicas em geral _ se, afinal, estamos tão presos a eventos ocorridos há mais de 1500 anos. Acho que tenho uma resposta a isto: no texto de Comin, Easterly e Gong não aparece sequer uma vez a palavra "Japan".

Hermenauta disse...

O texto da Slate é este:

http://www.slate.com/id/2153889/

E se refere, é claro, ao primeiro dos textos que você cita.

abçs

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