"Growth effects of nineteenth-century mass migrations: “Fome Zero” for Brazil?" Stolz, Baten e Botelho.

O choque de capital humano resultante da imigração européia no final dos séc. XIX teria gerado um ganho de USD 75/ano per capita para o Brasil de hoje.

We estimate a long-run trend of Brazilian human capital that extends back to the very beginning of the eighteenth century. With new data on selective immigration during the era of mass migrations at the end of the nineteenth century, we show that human capital endowment of international migrants can induce effects on economic development that persist until today. According to our estimations, the effect of selective immigration on real GDP per capita in the year 2000 is significant and equals around US$75 overall. As a reference, this value equals the amount poor Brazilians get to supplement their subsistence in the “Fome Zero” (Zero Hunger) program. We argue that human capital formation is a highly path-dependent and persistent process.

Os métodos são bem criativos, mas o valor do impacto- os próprios autores sugerem- parece subestimado.